What is the AHL

The AHL, or American Hockey League, is a hockey minor league based in the US and Canada. It's widely considered to be the step right below the NHL which is the top Hockey League in North America.

There are 32 teams in the AHL, and 23 of them make the playoffs. The teams play for the Calder Cup.

What are the Calder Cup Playoffs?

The Calder Cup Playoffs are the name given to the AHL team vying for the Championship Calder Cup. The 2023 Calder Cup Playoffs started on April, 18 2023 with 14 teams playing in 7 different series while the other 9 all had byes, that is, they did NOT play in the first round.

One thing to note is that the first round is essentially a play in1 round of the playoffs, but it's not an evenly divided play-in.

The current format has round 1 with a best of Three Games, rounds 2 and 3 with a best of Five Games, and both the Conference Finals and Calder Cup Finals with a best of Seven Games.

Why Realign?

The ultimate goal is to enhance competitive balance and foster new rivalries, making the playoff race and outcomes more reflective of team performance throughout the season.

The current structure of the AHL divides the entire league into 2 conferences, and each conference has 2 divisions.

In the Eastern Conference, you have the Atlantic and North divisions. The Atlantic has 8 teams, while the North has 7.

Out in the Western Conference, you have the Pacific and Central division. The Pacific has 10 teams, while the Central has 7 teams.

Now an interesting thing about the playoffs is that the top 7 (of 10) teams from the Pacific make the playoffs, while the top 5 (of 7) teams from the North and Central make it. The Atlantic sends its top 6 (of 8) teams to the playoffs.

Each division will have a certain number of teams with a bye-round, that is they don't have the play in the first round.

In the North and Central three teams get a first-round bye, with only 2 teams playing in round 1. In the Atlantic three teams get a first-round bye with 4 teams playing in the first round.

And in the Pacific division, you have 6 teams playing in the first round with only ONE team getting a first-round bye.

So of the 23 teams that make the playoffs, 14 of them play in the first round, and of that 14, 6 come from the Pacific division.

Seems a bit off to me.

This also had the slightly embarrassing (for the AHL at least) aspect of seeing the second-best team in the entire league in the 2022-23 season (the Coachella Valley Firebirds) needing to win a Play-in round to make it into what might be considered the playoffs.

By the time the Calder Cup Playoffs had concluded last year, the Firebirds lost to the Hershey Bears in 7 games. It was the MOST exciting series that I will ever get to see in person, or on TV.

That being said, the Firebirds played 26 out of a possible 27 games during the playoffs last year. The Bears played in 20 out of a possible 24.

If the Firebirds would have had a first-round bye, like the Bears, they would have most likely still played in 23 out of 24 games (3 fewer games than what they actually played) BUT three games can make a huge difference!

I would like to make the case that realignment of the AHL, to a balanced set of divisions, and conferences is not only feasible, and easy, but in the best interests of the AHL.

Before exploring the realignment scenario, I'll outline the proposed changes. The realignment aims to balance the divisions and conferences, ensuring an equal number of teams in each division and a fairer playoff qualification process.

Additionally, if this realignment had happened last year, I believe that the outcomes could have been different (especially given the Firebird Colored Glasses I might be wearing).

There is a post on the AHL Site about realignment. Quoting the League President Scott Howson:

There’s no easy solution. I’m not saying it’ll never happen, but it’s not in the cards right now.

One item stated for a lack of realignment is, "Realignment would break up the Pacific cohort and likely force teams into the Central, and Howson does not see that as likely, given the additional travel burden that it could put on the division’s members."

I'm going to assume this is NOT the case. What I have below is from a "Does this seem like it might work?" perspective. 2

Realignment

With my rationale for the need for realignment of the way, let's get into the actual implementation of the realignment.

I built a Streamlit app to see what a potential realignment would look like that can be found here.

The idea would be:

  1. Move both Tucson and Colorado to the Central Divsiion to get the Pacific Division down to 8 team
  2. Move Grand Rapids from the Central Division (in Western Conference) to the Atlantic Division (in the Eastern Conference) to get the Central and Atlantic to 8

Impact of Realignment on the 2023 Calder Cup Finals

In the NHL there are 2 conferences with 2 divisions of 8 teams each. The playoffs get a total of 16 teams. The three top teams from each division, and then the top two teams from the Conference.

This means that round 1 has 16 teams playing in 8 different series and NO ONE gets a bye.

Let's imagine the 2023 Calder Cup Playoffs with realignment AND a similar style of playoff admission. One difference between the AHL and NHL I'd keep would be to have 5 games in round 1 and 2, and increase to 7 games in the Championship, versus the NHL which has 7 games in every round.

I list the teams below in their proposed (potentially new) division. The number next to the team is the total points each team had at the end of the 2022-23 regular season.

The Eastern Conference would have had the following seeding:

Atlantic Division

  • Providence (98)
  • Hershey (97)
  • Charlotte (86)

North Division

  • Toronto (90)
  • Syracuse (81)
  • Rochester (81)

Wild Card

  • Springfield (84)
  • Hartford (81)

The Western Conference would have had the following seeding:

Central Division

  • Texas (92)
  • Colorado (90)
  • Milwaukee (89)

Pacific Division

  • Calgary (106)
  • Coachella Valley (103)
  • Abbotsford (87)

Wild Card

  • Manitoba (84)
  • Iowa (79)

Eastern Conference Playoffs

Round 1 Best of Five games

In this section, we'll explore the first-round matchups, highlighting the top contenders and their paths to victory based on past performances and current strengths.

Starting in the Eastern Conference we would have the following round 1 matchups:

  • Providence (98) vs Hartford (81)
  • Toronto (90) vs Springfield (84)
  • Hershey (97) vs Charlotte (86)
  • Syracuse (81) vs Rochester (81)

To determine the winners I'm going to look at the playoffs last year and then make an educated best guess as to the winners of each series

Providence vs Hartford

Providence lost to Hartford in the Atlantic division semi-finals last year, 1-3 and I see no reason for that to change ... other than maybe Hartford wins in 3 instead of 4. But I'm going to keep it at Hartford wins 3-1

Toronto vs Springfield

Toronto and Springfield didn't play each other in the playoffs last year or in the regular season. Springfield lost to Hartford 2-0 in round 1 while Toronto had a first-round bye and defeated Utica 3-1 in the North division semi-finals. My guess is that Toronto would have won this series 3-1

Hershey vs Charlotte

Hershey defeated Charlotte in the Atlantic division semi-finals last year 3-1. Granted Charlotte had just played 3 games against Lehigh Valley and won that series 2-1, I still think that Hershey defeats Charlotte, only it takes all 5 games. Hershey wins 3-2

Syracuse vs Rochester

Syracuse lost 3-2 to Rochester. Same result this time around I would think

Round 2 Best of Five games

Based on the seedings for the first round, I believe that Hartford would hold a higher position than Rochester

  • Hershey (97) vs Rochester (81)
  • Toronto (90) vs Hartford (81)
Hershey vs Rochester

Hershey defeated Rochester 3-2 last year. I believe the outcome would be the same here (although this was in the Eastern Conference finals)

Toronto vs Hartford

Toronto and Hartford didn't play each other last year, though each team did get swept in the division finals. They played each other in the regular season only 2 times, each with the home team winning in OT. With Toronto getting the home nod, I'll extrapolate to say that Toronto wins in 5 games, 3-2

Round 3 (Eastern Conference Finals) Best of Seven

Toronto vs Hershey

Toronto played Hershey 2 times and lost both times. I think that a series like this would be closer, but Hershey comes out on top 4-2

Eastern Conference Champion Review

In this realigned AHL for the Calder Cup finals, Hershey has played 16 out of 17 games, going 10-6 to reach the Calder Cup Finals. When they actually reached the Calder Cup finals last year, they played only 13 games going 10-3 (playing an extra 3 games)

Providence (98)----|
                   |--Hartford (81)----|
Hartford (81)------|                   |
                                       |--Toronto (90)-----|
Toronto (90)-------|                   |                   |
                   |--Toronto (90)-----|                   |
Springfield (84)---|                                       |
                                                           |--Hershey (87)
Hershey (87)-------|                                       |
                   |--Hershey (87)-----|                   |
Charlotte (86)-----|                   |                   |
                                       |--Hershey (87)-----|
Syracuse (81)------|                   |
                   |--Rochester (81)---|
Rochester (81)-----|

Let's take a look out West next

Western Conference Playoffs

Round 1 Best of Five games

In the Western conference we would have had the following round 1 matchups:

  • Calgary (106) vs Iowa (79)
  • Texas (92) vs Manitoba (84)
  • Coachella Valley3 (103) vs Abbotsford (87)
  • Colorado (90) vs Milwaukee (89)

As with the Eastern Conference bracket to determine the winners I'm going to look at the playoffs last year and then make an educated best guess as to the winners of each series.

Calgary vs Iowa

Calgary didn't play Iowa at all in either the regular season or the postseason last year. Based on the final records, I think it's safe to say that Calgary wins this series, but I believe it's 3-1

Texas vs Manitoba

Texas played Manitoba 8 times in the regular season last year with Manitoba winning 6 of these games. There were several that went into OT which Manitoba won more often than not. I think this goes to 5 games, but Manitoba wins 3-2.

Coachella Valley vs Abbotsford

Coachella Valley and Abbotsford played 4 times, each winning two games. Given the disparity in total points at the end of the year, I think that Coachella Valley wins in five 3-2.

Colorado vs Milwaukee

Colorado and Milwaukee didn't play each other at all in the regular season. I think that this is an even match-up, but I give the edge to Colorado since they're the home team, winning 3-2.

Round 2 Best of Five games

  • Calgary (106) vs Manitoba (84)
  • Coachella Valley (103) vs Colorado (90)
Calgary vs Manitoba

Calgary wins this in 5, 3-2. They didn't play each other at all during the regular season, but I think that provincial pride forces the series to 5 games

Coachella Valley vs Colorado

Coachella Valley wins this in 5, 3-2. This is a repeat of the series last year. I believe that it goes the distance again.

Round 3 (Western Conference Finals) Best of Seven

Calgary vs Coachella Valley

Coachella Valley defeats Calgary 4-3

Coachella Valley and Calgary played each other in the Pacific Division Finals last year. It was a brutal series with Coachella Valley winning in game 5 in Overtime. I think that the same result comes out here going the distance.

Calgary (106)------|
                   |--Calgary (106)------|
Iowa (79)----------|                     |
                                         |--Calgary (106)----|
Texas (92)---------|                     |                   |
                   |--Manitoba (84) -----|                   |
Manitoba (84)------|                                         |
                                                             |--CV (103)
CV (103)-----------|                                         |
                   |--CV (103)-----------|                   |
Abbotsford (87)----|                     |                   |
                                         |--CV (103)---------|
Colorado (90)------|                     |
                   |--Colorado (90)------|
Milwaukee (89)-----|

Western Conference Champion Review

At the Calder Cup finals, Coachella Valley has played 17 out of 17 games, going 10-7. When they actually reached the Calder Cup finals last year, they played 19 games going 12-7. Two fewer games to get here.

Calder Cup Finals

In this matchup, Coachella Valley will have up to 4 home games, while Hershey will have up to 3.

Coachella Valley played in 2 fewer games in this scenario, while Hershey played in 3 more games, for a net difference of 5 games.

I think the first two games go as they did last year. Epic drubbings at Acrisure Arena by Coachella Valley over Hershey. I think that the 3 games4 in Hershey go 2-1 in favor of Hershey giving the Firebirds a chance to clinch on home ice in game 6 which they do.

Evaluating the Impact of Realignment: A Reflection on Competitive Balance and Missed Opportunities

Going through this exercise doesn't change the outcome of the 2023 Calder Cup Finals. And I don't want this to seem like a sour grapes sort of thing. The Hershey Bears won the Final game last year within the confines of the structure that was set up by the AHL. In that sense, they won it fair and square.

Also, I'm not sure if this realignment had been in place my predictions would have been correct necessarily.

What I think it does point out is an extreme disadvantage that the Pacific division faces in the playoffs. Last year the Coachella Valley Firebirds were the FIRST team west of Austin to make the Finals. They were also the first team to EVER play a playoff game in EVERY timezone that the AHL operates a team in.

Coda

I was bummed that the Firebirds lost in Game 7 last year. I wrote about it just a few days after it happened.

It was the most exciting sporting event I've ever seen, either in person or on TV. I'm not sure anything will ever be that intense and exciting.

I really wish they would have won, and this shows that they just might have been able to if the conference, divisions, and playoff seedings were a bit more balanced.

  1. preliminary round that occurs before the start of the official playoffs. It is typically used to determine who gets the last spots in the playoff ↩︎
  2. A full analysis is something I'll be looking at for another post in the future. There are lots of other items to look at like (1) Schedules, (2) Travel, and (3) Rivalries ↩︎
  3. Coachella Valley is abbreviated CV in some cases below to save space ↩︎
  4. In all honesty the 3 games in Hershey last year were games where the Firebirds seemed a bit tired. There was also some officiating that seemed a bit dubious (an offside that didn't get called that led to a goal that, IMO, shouldn't have counted) ↩︎

This post is part 1 of the "AHL Realignment" series:

  1. An Argument to Realign the AHL

tags: ahl, hockey